The 2016, Not 2015, Chicago Cubs Will Be Great

Jon Lester
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Much of the hype this winter around the hot stove has been about the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs signed up ace Jon Lester, traded for quality catcher Miguel Montero, and hired well-liked and respected manager Joe Madden. With these moves, their World Series odds rose from 50-1 to 12-1. While those three moves are major for the ball club, calling the Cubs World Series contenders in 2015 is very optimistic. The Cubs are still a year away from being contenders.

When a team signs a clutch playoff performer like Jon Lester, they are immediately put into the spotlight and become bandwagon favorites. However, it has been the little moves they have made that will set them up for success. They signed Jason Hammel, who they traded in July, but had pitched very well for the Cubs in his time at Wrigley. Ryan Lawarnway, a former top 100 prospect, was claimed off of waivers and could find his way into a important bench role. And, in an extremely underrated move, the Cubs signed Jason Motte for one year and four and a half million dollars. Motte saved 42 games in 2012 before undergoing Tommy John in 2013 and struggling in 2014 for St. Louis. If Motte proves to be successful, he could be a major cog in the Cubs bullpen in future (or they can trade him at the 2015 deadline for prospects). All of these players can have major impacts on the Cubs next year.

Kris Bryant
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However, even with these big moves, the Cubs have to be prepping for the 2016 season. By 2016, 2014 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year Kris Bryant and 2014 Oakland A's Pre-Season Top Prospect Addison Russell will be in the majors, solidifying what will be the best infield in baseball (with Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez). Baez, who struck out at an astronomical rate last year, will have a full season under his belt where he can learn to be more selective. Arismendy Alcantara and Jorge Soler will also have the benefit of being in the majors for a full season. Also, most of the players on the Cubs roster have never been in a playoff race, and the experience they will gain on being on a competitive team in 2015 will help them in 2016.

Here is the Cubs' possible starting lineup in 2016

LF - Arismendy Alcantara - S/R - 24 - 2014 #100 Prospect according to Baseball America
2B - Javier Baez - R/R - 23 -  2014 #5 Prospect according to Baseball America
3B - Kris Bryant - R/R - 24 -  2014 #8 Prospect according to Baseball America
1B - Anthony Rizzo - L/L - 26 - 2014 MLB All-Star
RF - Jorge Soler - R/R - 24 - 2014 #41 Prospect according to Baseball America
SS - Addison Russell - R/R - 22 - 2014 #14 Prospect according to Baseball America
C - Miguel Montero - L/R - 32 - 2014 MLB All-Star
CF - Albert Almora - R/R - 22 - 2014 #36 Prospect according to Baseball America

That is one stacked line-up, top to bottom. And that does not include 24-year-old three-time All-Star Starlin Castro, who the Cubs have locked up until 2020, or 2014 1st Round Pick Kyle Schwarber. Castro is major trade bait, but if Theo Epstein can not get the players he wants in a trade for Castro, he can move Castro, a mediocre-at-best defensive shortstop, to third base or the outfield (much like what Boston is doing with Hanley Ramirez). That lineup will not be as developed in 2015 as it will be in 2016, with players like Chris Coghlan (rWAR in 2014: 0.2) or Junior Lake (rWAR:-1.5 /fWAR: -1.0) filling in until all the top prospects reach the big show.

CJ Edwards
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The 2016 rotation also looks very good, headlined by Lester, Hammel, and Jake Arriata. I have confidence that the Cubs rotation in 2016 will be above average. Pitching coach Chris Bosio is one of the best in the game right now. He has taken below average pitchers that last few years and made them above average, even potential stars. With Bosio on the staff, the Cubs can trust that they will get the best out of their starters. Their bullpen will also have some good pitchers, headlined by Hector Rondon (29 saves and 2.42 ERA in 2014). In 2016, the Cubs will also most likely have top pitching prospects CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson in the MLB as important contributors.

While it is early to be making predictions, withstanding any more major developments, here is my prediction for the Cubs in 2015. They will start off slow, as players like Baez and Soler, are still getting themselves adjusted. By mid-May, the Cubs bandwagon is a lot lighter than it is now. However, they show improvement and by July 1st, Baez is fully adjusted and Bryant is up in the bigs. The Cubs play very well, albeit under the radar, for the last few months of the season. The North Siders finish the season with a record around 80-82. 

2016: They are my early, way, way-too early, World Series favorites.